The In-Season Tournament

 

    For the first time in NASCAR's history, NASCAR is having their own in season tournament. Similar to that of the NCAA March Madness tournament, 32 drivers will compete for a chance at winning a million dollars. The challenge spans over 5 races which includes Atlanta, Chicago, Sonoma, Dover, and Indianapolis. Fans are also able to participate to have a chance to win a million dollars too! Today, I want to dive into each matchup and give you all my predictions for the in-season tournament.

The Round of 32

    I'm not going to go super in depth into my picks for each matchup as there are a lot of matchups to get too. That said, the first round takes place at Atlanta, which is about as wild-card of a round as it gets. Atlanta, however, is not the most random super speedway. Atlanta is more in the drivers control because of how important handling has become. It's refreshing to see Atlanta not be a random lottery as to who wins. As a result, the matchups are a bit easier to predict compared to a Daytona or Talladega.

• (1) Denny Hamlin vs (32) Ty Dillon
• This matchup is pretty striaghtforward for me. Though Hamlin has not had a ton of speed at Atlanta in recent races, he did finish 6th there in the spring. Dillon's best finish is 19th at the 5 next Gen races he has done there. Hamlin may struggle with super speedways in the Next Gen car, but he should get the job done here

• (16) Kyle Busch vs (17) Brad Keselowski 
• This might be the most intriguing round 1 matchup. Both Busch and Keselowski are considered to be good superspeedway racers. That said, Busch has 5 straight top 10s in that span and an average finish of 6.5. Keselowski ran well here in 2023 with finishes of 2nd and 6th. That said, his best finish since then was 19th. Give me Busch to move on here

• (8) Alex Bowman vs (25) Joey Logano
• This is another interesting matchup that could see an upset. Alex Bowman has been mediocre at Atlanta in the Next Gen era, with only two top 10 finishes. Bowman has had speed here though, in 2 consecutive races as he earned stage points in the last two. That said, Logano has been really good at Atlanta, including 2 wins in the 7 races. Logano should win this matchup, though Logano has a tendency or wrecking so I could see Bowman getting the upset.

• (9) Bubba Wallace vs (24) Daniel Suarez
• This is another tough matchup to predict. Daniel Suarez, prior to the spring race, had an average finish of 7.33 including a win and two 2nd place finishes. That said, Suarez was painfully slow in the Spring race and got caught up in a wreck while running 30th. Bubba Wallace, meanwhile, scored stage points in both of the stages in the Spring race and finished 9th. I do believe that Wallace will have the faster car, but it comes down to if he gets caught up in a wreck. That said, I'm sticking with Wallace.

• (12) John Hunter Nemechek vs (21) Josh Berry
• Once again, another tough matchup for me to predict. John Hunter Nemechek won't be faster than Berry, but Nemechek did finish in the top 10 at Atlanta earlier this season. Berry, meanwhile, won a stage but crashed out and finished 25th. Neither of these drivers are particularly great superspeedway racers, but I think I prefer Berry slightly over Nemechek. Berry will be faster, but I think Nemechek could fly under the radar.

• (5) Chase Elliott vs (28) Austin Dillon
• I think Chase Elliott wins this. Elliott has a win here and will contend up front. Austin Dillon's finishes the last 5 races at Atlanta are 16th, 20th, 20th, 21st, and 22nd. Dillon is consistent, but Elliott is just better.

• (7) Ross Chastain vs. (23) Erik Jones
• This matchup is a tough one to predict as well. Chastain has finishes of 7th, 8th, and 13th in the last 3 Atlanta races, whereas Jones does not have a top 10 finish in that span. I think Chastain is the safer pick here, which I will go with because I trust the speed of the 1 instead of the 43.

• (4) Christopher Bell vs (29) Ricky Stenhouse Jr
• This is the matchup that has the biggest upset potential. Bell won this race in the spring and has 3 top 5 finishes since Atlanta was reconfigured. Stenhouse only has 2 top 5, but Stenhouse has been much more consistent the last 5 races, as he has 5 straight top 20 finishes. Stenhouse also finished 5th in this race in the spring. In the predictions that I do each week, I do have Bell finishing ahead of Stenhouse, so I will stick with Bell

• (2) Chase Briscoe vs (31) Noah Gragson
• Neither of these drivers have done well at Atlanta. Both drivers do not have a top 10 finish in the 7 races that has been had here. That said, I'll pick Chase Briscoe because of the JGR power. That said, this one is a toss up for me.

• (15) Ryan Preece vs (18) William Byron
• Ryan Preece has improved at superspeeedways. He finished 2nd at Talladega, before being disqualified. He has a few straight top 20 finishes at Atlanta, but William Byron has been one of the best at Atlanta. He has 2 wins at Atlanta and had another strong run going in the spring before being caught up in the Larson and Cindric wreck. I'm sticking with Byron here.

• (7) Ryan Blaney vs (26) Carson Hocevar
• Fitting that this matchup is at the same track where they had a run in at in the Spring. Hocevar nearly won this race in the spring, finishing 2nd. He spun Ryan Blaney in that same race, and Blaney came back to finish 4th. Hocevar will have the speed, but Blaney has been one of the best superspeedway racers in the Next Gen Era. Give me Blaney over Hocevar.

• (10) Kyle Larson vs (23) Tyler Reddick
• This is the most interesting matchup. Both of these drivers are top 10 in the regular season points and are in slumps. That said, I like Larson just a little bit more than Reddick. Reddick has the better finishes on average than Larson at Atlanta. That said, Larson has been quick at Atlanta, despite only having 1 top 5 finish. Larson will be up near the front, and as long as he doesn't crash out, I think he will defeat Reddick

•  (11) Michael McDowell vs (22) Aj Allmendinger
• This is a sneaky matchup in the bottom right Quadrant. Interestingly though, McDowell was not very fast with Spire back in the spring race. Hocevar was quick, but McDowell was not. Aj Allmendinger, on the other hand, was a much more formidable foe. Both finished 13th and 14th in the spring race, but I think Allmendinger will show a bit more speed. I have him moving on.

• (6) Ty Gibbs vs (27) Justin Haley
• Neither of these drivers were great here in the spring. Haley does have 4 top 12 finishes in the 7 races, where as Gibbs has 2 top 12 finishes in 5 Atlanta races. I don't expect these drivers to be competing for the win, but I like Haley a bit more than Gibbs here to move on.

• (14) Zane Smith vs (19) Austin Cindric
• This might be the most lopsided first round matchup here. Austin Cindric might just be the favorite to win, as Cindric was in contention to win the race in the spring. He won Talladega earlier this season as well. Smith, on the other hand, has not really been a factor at any Atlanta race he has raced. Give me Cindric in this one.

•  (3) Chris Buescher vs (30) Todd Gilliland
• This might come as a surprise, but Chris Buescher does not have great finishes at Atlanta. He has two top 10 finishes, but also 4 finishes of 30th or worse. I expect Chris Buescher to be faster than Gilliland, but I think Gilliland pulls up the upset. Gilliland does not have any top 10 finishes, but he has no finish worse than 27th. I think Gilliland will stay under the radar and move on to the next round.

Round of 16

    The Round of 16 takes place at the Chicago Street Course. Chicago has been a bit of a wild card the last couple of years, with rain impacting both races that have been had there. If the rain stays away, then I expect for there to be some normalcy in the results.

• (1) Denny Hamlin vs (16) Kyle Busch
• When looking at the stats for each driver at road courses since the Next Gen car began, Kyle Busch has been significantly better than Hamlin. Busch did crash out at Mexico City, but finished at 5th at COTA. Hamlin only has 1 top 10 finish at a road course in the next gen era. Give me Busch to move on here.

•  (25) Joey Logano vs (9) Bubba Wallace
• Neither Logano and Wallace have been particularly inspiring at road courses. They both have one top 10 finish over their last 7 road courses. That said, I like Wallace slightly more than Logano because Wallace has 7 straight top 20s, whereas Logano only has 4 top 20s on road courses in that span. This could go either way, but I was really encouraged by Wallace's speed at the end of the Mexico City race. Give me Wallace to advance.

•  (21) Josh Berry vs (5) Chase Elliott
• Similar to Elliott's first round matchup against Dillon, I expect him to beat Berry quite easily. Elliott has been a top 3 road course racer in the next gen car in my opinion. Though he does not have a win, he always runs well. Berry, on the other hand, is usually running between 25th and 30th on road courses. Give me Elliott in this one.

• (13) Ross Chastain vs (4) Christopher Bell
• Chastain is a solid road course racer and does have a win at COTA in the next gen car. That said, Bell has 3 straight finishes of 2nd or better at Road Courses. Bell should be a threat to win at Chicago. Give me Bell in this matchup

• (2) Chase Briscoe vs (18) William Byron
• This matchup is similar to Chastain and Bell. Briscoe is a solid road course racer in his own right, as he has a 7th place finish at Mexico City and a 6th place at Watkins Glen in recent road course races. Byron, on the other hand, has 3 straight top 10 finishes at road courses and nearly won COTA. Give me Byron in this one

• (7) Ryan Blaney vs (10) Kyle Larson
• This is the 3rd straight matchup where I think there's a solid road course racer versus on that is really good. Blaney had 5 top 12 finishes at road courses in 2024 which is good. He likely is more consistent than Larson, but Larson is more dependable when it comes to winning road courses. Larson was quick at Chicago last year before crashing into the tire barriers. I think he will get his revenge and run well at Chicago. Give me Larson here.

• (22) Aj Allmendinger vs (27) Justin Haley
• I don't think this matchup is particularly close. Allmendinger has been really good at road courses whereas Haley has not. Give me Allmendinger.

• (19) Austin Cindric vs (30) Todd Gilliland
• This is the matchup that is the toughest for me to predict. Cindric and Gilliland are not great road course racers. Cindric had 2 top 10 finishes on road courses in 2024 and 2025, whereas Gilliland has 3. Cindric finished better at Mexico City than Gilliland, but Gilliland finished better at COTA. Their Chicago results are pretty similar, a 6th and 15th for Cindric, and a 7th and 19th for Gilliland. I'll lean towards Gilliland on this one just because I think he will qualify better

Round of 8

    The round of 8 takes place at Sonoma Raceway. Sonoma is much more straight forward in its results, as there usually isn't too much chaos that goes on. 

• (16) Kyle Busch vs (9) Bubba Wallace
• Similar to the Chicago round, I expect Busch to run well at Sonoma. He has recent finishes of 12th and 2nd, whereas Wallace has finishes of 17th and 20th. Busch should contend in the top 10, so I will choose him to move on.

• (5) Chase Elliott vs (4) Christopher Bell
• Both of these drivers are really good road course racers. The tiebreaker for me goes down to how each driver has performed at Sonoma recently. Elliott has finished of 4th, 5th, and 8th in the 3 most recent Sonoma races. Bell, on the other hand, has finishes of 9th, 9th, and 27th. Sonoma is not one of Bell's best road courses, so I will choose Elliott to move on in this matchup.

• (18) William Byron vs (10) Kyle Larson
• This is another heavyweight fight between two of the best road course racers in the Cup series. That said, Larson has been better at Sonoma as of late than Byron. Byron's best finish in the next gen era is 9th, whereas Larson's is a 1st which he got last year. Byron is an overall better road course racer, but Sonoma might just be Larson's best road course. I'll take the 5 to move on.

• (22) Aj Allmendinger vs (30) Todd Gilliland
• Unfortunately, I think this is where Gilliland's cinderella run comes to an end. Allmendinger's finishes don't jump off the page at Sonoma, but he has 2 top 10s in that span. Gilliland, on the other hand, only has 1. I think Aj has been consistently faster on the road courses in the next gen era, which includes a win at the 2023 Charlotte Roval. Give me AJ to move on.

Round of 4

    The 4th round of the in season tournament takes place at Dover Motor Speedway. A one mile concrete oval, this track is another one that should be relatively straightforward in predicting.

• (16) Kyle Busch vs (5) Chase Elliott
• This one is a close one, in my opinion. Busch has shown speed at Dover in recent years as he finished 4th here last year and collected stage points in both stages. At Nashville, Busch finished 12th but didn't really run well. As for Elliott, he has 3 top 11 finishes at Dover in the next gen era. Elliott has not ran great at Nashville, as he finished 15th this year and 18th the year before. I want to pick Busch really badly because that team showed great pace last year. That said, I can not trust Kyle Busch. I know Elliott will run decently at Dover, so I am going to pick him to move on.

• (10) Kyle Larson vs (22) Aj Allmendinger
• I won't spend as much time here as I did the Busch and Elliott matchup. Allmendinger has 2 straight top 20 finishes at Dover, which isn't bad. That said, he will need Larson to crash in order to win. Larson finished 2nd last year and has 4 top 10 finishes at a similar track at Nashville. Give me Larson to move on.

The Finals

    The Final Round takes place at one of NASCAR's Crown Jewel's in the Brickyard 400.  The Brickyard 400 takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This is a 2.5 mile flat rectangle that relies on drafting to make passes. I do believe that Elliott and Larson will make it to the final round of this in season tournament. Of course, stuff can change but it's hard for me to say they won't make it this far.

• (5) Chase Elliott vs (10) Kyle Larson
• It all comes down to this. Chase Elliott showed a lot of speed at Pocono this past weekend, which I think has some similarities too that of Indianapolis. That said, Elliott finished 10th in last years Brickyard 400. Kyle Larson, meanwhile, won this race last year. Larson did not show a ton of speed at Pocono, but did rally to finish 7th. It will be tough for Larson to win Indy again, but I think Larson's experience with Indycar helps him out a lot too. I'll take Larson to win!

    I do enjoy that NASCAR adopted this in-season tournament. It's a fun way to make the summer stretch not feel as much of a slog. With that said, I despise how they went about seeding this. They seeded it based off of who had the best finish between Michigan Mexico City, Pocono which is weird. They should have just done it on who earned the most points, as that would have been a lot easier for fans to understand. Regardless, I'm looking forward to it!