Atlanta Preview

 

    Race number 18 of the NASCAR series comes at the Echopark speedway, though I will be referring to it as Atlanta for the foreseeable future. That said, there is a lot to talk about when it comes to what is at stake in this race. Atlanta has been one of the best tracks in the Next Gen era, especially with its emphasis on handling. To an extent, it's like Daytona was before it was repaved. This means that handling is extremely important at Atlanta, and we usually will see the best teams bubble their way towards the front at Atlanta. Today, I want to dive into some storylines, favorites, sleepers, and much more to the race on Saturday night!

Storylines

    There are a lot of things going on this weekend at Atlanta, especially for the cup series. Firstly, there is the in-season tournament that is happening where each driver qualified in has a chance to win a million dollars. This is a 32 driver, march madness style tournament that takes place over the next five races. There will be a separate broadcast led by Jeff Burton and Larry McReynolds who will be focusing on this. The other major storyline is seeing if we get a wild card winner that blows up the playoff grid. Atlanta has not produced any surprise winners during its time though. Joey Logano has 2 wins, William Byron has 2 wins, Chase Elliott has a win,  Daniel Suarez has a win, and Christopher Bell has a win. That said, there are some drivers that are below the cutline that I can see winning, which I will discuss later.

Atlanta Stats and Favorites

    There's 3 main stats that I want to discuss which are the average finish, average running position, and laps led at the 7 Atlanta races that have been had here. The average running position is based off of the loop data, so it is not entirely accurate to where they ran during the race before they crashed. Regardless, I still think there's some discussion that can be had, first with average finish. 

Just to add, I made a slight error and left Briscoe as the 14, instead of the 19 for reference!

    The drivers with the best average finish at Atlanta are Ryan Blaney (6.71), Chase Elliott (10.5), Daniel Suarez (11), Aj Allmendinger (11), and Ross Chastain (11.43). Superspeedway racing can com down to a lot of luck, but there are some good superspeedway racers up here. Ryan Blaney has arguably been the best superspeedway racer in the cup series. He has not won at Atlanta, but he has been contending up front in a lot of these races. He finished 4th in the spring, 2nd in the 2024 spring race, and has 6 top 10 finishes. He will be a threat Saturday, so long as Hocevar does not spin him out. Chase Elliott won the 2022 summer race at Atlanta and he is a good superspeedway racer in his own right. Suarez was really good at Atlanta the first 6 races, but he was off come the Spring race. He ran 30th and was not a threat to win before crashing out. Aj Allmendinger has been quiet at Atlanta, but has good results. Chastain has been up front a good bit as I will show shortly.

    The worst average finishes belong to that of Ty Dillon (27), SVG (27.5), Cole Custer (27.75), Cody Ware (27.8), and Noah Gragson (31.43). I do not expect any of these drivers to be a contender come Saturday night.

    Looking at average running position and laps led, there are some interesting things to point out. Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports have been really quick at Atlanta. Penske has all 3 of their drivers in the top 6 of average running position and laps led in Logano (22), Blaney (12), and Cindric (2). For Hendrick, William Byron (24) and Chase Elliott (9) have been really quick here as well, with them both being in the top 5 of average running position and laps led. That said, Logano, Cindric, and Byron rank outside the top 5 in average finish. Logano and Cindric are 8th and 9th, while Byron is down in 14th. 

    Ross Chastain (1) is someone that needs to be highlighted. Chastain has the 5th best average finisher, the 6th best average running position, and the 5th most laps led. He has been very underrated at Atlanta and I expect him to be a contender for a good finish. I think Busch (8) and Keselowski (6) are important to highlight as well, as both drivers have run well at Atlanta but have achieved different results. They rank 7th and 8th in laps led, but have much different average finishes. Busch ranks 6th and has 5 straight top 10s, whereas Keselowski ranks middle of the pack in average finish here. Both guys should have the pace to contend in the top 10 this weekend.

    The last drivers that I want to discuss as potential favorites come from Joe Gibbs Racing and Hyak Motorsports. From the JGR stable, I think Denny Hamlin (11) and Christopher Bell (20) have to be up there. Bell has a decent average finish at Atlanta, ranking 13th in the Cup Series. Not to mention as well, he did win this race in the Spring. I am not super high on Bell, however, to run up front as he only has led 23 laps at Atlanta. As for Hamlin, he typically runs decently at Atlanta, as he ranks 7th in average running position. Hamlin can just never seem to get the finishes that he deserves as he gets caught up in a decent amount of wrecks. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) is a really good superspeedway racer. He has won at Daytona and Talladega in the next gen car, though has not won at Atlanta. Stenhouse won't have the teammate help, but he will have the speed to contend throughout.
    

Sleepers

    I'm kind of cheating by putting this guy down here, but Kyle Larson (5) is someone that deserves a mention. He will be fast on Saturday, but Larson has had terrible luck at Atlanta. He has the 6th worst average finish, and only got his first top 10 at Atlanta this past spring. I think Larson can win this race, so long as he stays out of trouble. 

    My last cheat I am using comes with Spire motorsports. Michael McDowell (71) is not a true sleeper, as he is known to be a good superspeedway racer. Similarly, to McDowell, Carson Hocevar (77) is not a true sleeper, as he finished 2nd at this race in the spring. He also has a really solid average finish of 12.33 that ranks 7th in the cup series at this track. Justin Haley (7) garnered a reputation of being a great superspeedway racer in the Xfinity series when he won 4 races at superspeedways. In the cup series, though, he has one win and that came at a rain shortened race at Daytona in 2019. He has not been much of a contender at Daytona or Talladega, either, leaving many wondering if that reputation has left him. Atlanta is the track that he has been decent at. He has the 10th best average finish at Atlanta and the 14th best average running position. I'm not picking him to win, but he is an under the radar pick.

    Front Row Motorsports has historically qualified really well at Atlanta. That said, they normally fall back during the race. Gragson (4) and Smith (38) did not run well in the spring race. Todd Gilliland (34) did though, as he ran up in the top 15 for most of the race. He has not finished super well at Atlanta, but Gilliland does have the 9th most laps led here and has the 13th best running position there. I think Gilliland will qualify well and run up in the top 15 for most of the race Saturday. He's my big upset pick in the first round, taking down Chris Buescher (17) in the first round of the in-season tournament.

    I mentioned already, but Aj Allmendinger is a sneaky threat at Atlanta. He does not run particularly well, as he is middle of the pack in average running position. That said, he does rank top 5 in average finish, so he could be someone that gets a top 10. I think the Legacy Motor Club teams of Erik Jones (43) and John Hunter Nemechek (42) should be mentioned as well. They have not had the historical success, but they do have momentum on their side. Both Jones and Nemechek have shown a lot of speed at a variety of tracks as of late, so I would not be surprised to see them get a couple good finishes this weekend.


My Predictions


  • 1. Byron
  • 2. Blaney
  • 3. Logano
  • 4. Cindric
  • 5. Larson
  • 6. Reddick
  • 7. Bell
  • 8. Busch
  • 9. Keselowski
  • 10. McDowell
  • 11. Stenhouse
  • 12. Wallace
  • 13. Elliott
  • 14. Bowman
  • 15. Hocevar
  • 16. Chastain
  • 17. Allmendinger
  • 18. Haley
  • 19. Suarez
  • 20. Buescher
  • 21. Hamlin
  • 22. Gragson
  • 23. Gibbs
  • 24. gilliland
  • 25. Nemechek
  • 26. Jones
  • 27. Herbst
  • 28. Preece
  • 29. Briscoe
  • 30. LaJoie
  • 31. Custer
  • 32. Berry
  • 33. Smith
  • 34. A. Dillon
  • 35. Ware
  • 36. T. Dillon
  • 37. SVG
  • 38. Zillich
  • 39. McLeod
  • 40. Starr

Closing Thoughts & Expectations

    I wanted to save 23XI until the very end. I think they are the hardest team to predict this weekend. Wallace (23) has gained a reputation of being a good superspeedway racer, but Atlanta is a track that he has struggled with. Reddick (45) does not have a great average finish or running position at Atlanta. Both of these drivers have won superspeedways in the past and have the speed to contend, but I am not fully confident in them. That said, if there's a weekend where they can get their momentum together, it is this one. Riley Herbst might be the most under the radar guy for this weekend. He didn't run great here in the Spring, but Herbst has a reputation of being a good superspeedway racer in Xfinity. I could see him being a sneaky threat to be in the top 10 at the end.

    Overall, I am very excited for this weekend. There is a lot that is going on between the in season tournament, and a new broadcast partner in TNT. I think the racing will be really good, as it usually is at this track. I'm looking forward to the broadcast and I do have high expectations for it. I don't think it will be as good as Prime's, but I would like for the production to have a similar vibe to what Prime had. The booth will be good as it is the same people involved, but as long as TNT comes in with a serious attitude, then I believe all will work out!







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