Mexico City Race Analysis and Review

 

    That was a pretty good race I would say! Shane Van Gisbergen led 60 laps at Mexico City and dominated the final run to claim his first victory of the 2025 NASCAR season. SVG ran up inside the top 5 for most of the race and that last run showed that he still has an edge over the cup series field on road courses. SVG won the pole Saturday and claimed the longest victory since 2009, when Kurt Busch won at Texas by 25 seconds in a fuel mileage race. SVG's margin of victory at Mexico City was 16.567 seconds, which is ridiculous. I'll dive more into SVG, other notable finishers, and my thoughts on the Mexico City Race in this blog.

SVG

    SVG has had some good runs at road courses the last year and a half. He almost won Watkins Glen in 2024, but made a mistake in the esses allowing Chris Buescher to win. SVG ran well at COTA this season, but he lost a lot of ground on restarts and ultimately finished 6th despite leading 23 laps. Mexico City though, was his best performance as a whole. Though his win at Chicago in 2023 was very impressive, SVG felt like the dominant threat at Mexico City. 

    The win, however, does come with some controversy with SVG now being locked into the playoffs. SVG has improved at the ovals in recent weeks, but right now he seems like an easy 1st round elimination. That said, Trackhouse and SVG are just taking advantage of the system at hand and I can't blame them for that. SVG deserved the win and I am glad that he got it. I'm curious how he does especially at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, where the Cup guys have a ton of experience at moving forward.

The Top 10

    The only other car that appeared to be in SVG's zip code throughout the race was Ty Gibbs. Gibbs has been searching for his first career cup win and. I think he had a really solid car to do just that. He kept up with SVG for the first 2 stages and led 40 laps as well. That said, Gibbs would pit right before stage 2 ended and wound up losing out in the long run because of Carson Hocevar spinning in turn 15 with about 37 laps to go. As a result, Gibbs was unable to work his way through traffic and burnt his stuff up too much. He comes home in a disappointing 11th place finish when he had a top 3 car on the day. That said, I am encouraged by the speed that the 54 team showed here!

    Christopher Bell had a great run considering he started back in 31st place. Bell had a good car today, but he was never really close to SVG in this race. Though, this was a great result for Bell who has already won a road course this season at COTA. Chase Elliott was on the same strategy as Ty Gibbs, but Elliott was able to move up through the field that final run unlike Gibbs. Elliott was solid today but never felt like a threat. He was always running around 10th before that final run but credit to him. Alex Bowman needed a good result today after a terrible last 2 months. He got that today by finishing 4th. I believe he was on the same strategy as SVG, so Bowman did a great job of hanging on. Lastly in the top 5 is Michael McDowell, who is another solid road course racer and showed that on the last run. He was able to make his way through the field to finish 5th and stay in striking distance of a playoff spot

    John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer are historically not great road course racers. That said, they took advantage of the Carson Hocever wreck to score their best finishes on road courses in the next gen era. Nemechek finished 6th and Custer 8th which were great results for two teams that had been struggling in recent weeks. Nemechek wrecked twice at Michigan last week and was tumbling down the points standings, where as Custer got his first top 10 of the season

    Chase Briscoe finished 7th despite being caught up in the Kyle Busch and Zane Smith mess along with hitting a tire barrier at one point as well later in the race. Briscoe was able to work his way from being a lap down all the way to finishing 7th which is quite impressive. He lost his pole streak, but it was refreshing to see the 19 team work their way forward rather than backwards in a race. William Byron had a pretty eventful day, as he went off course multiple times and spun Riley Herbst. He still rebounds to a 9th place finish and extends his point lead. Lastly, in 10th was Chris Buescher who was on the strategy that SVG was on. Buescher was never a factor today but still retains a ridiculous average finish of sub 9 on road courses in the 19 next gen races.

The Midfield

    A 12th place finish won't light up the stats sheet, but Bubba Wallace had a pretty good day. Bubba has struggled a lot on road courses in the next gen era, as he had an average finish of 21st on road courses. That said, Bubba moved his way up through the field that final stage and had one of the fastest cars at the end. I'll have a blog out later this week discussing the playoff bubble, but this was a great run from Bubba at Mexico City.

    Aj Allmendinger was caught up in the Busch and Smith accident at the start of the race. That said, Allmendinger fought to a 13th place finish even with all of the damage. I am curious how quick he could have been if he wasn't wrecked early in the race. Ryan Preece won stage 1 and got some valuable stage points, but he was never able to get back up front this race. He comes home 15th in this one. Ross Chastain earned some stage points today, but he was never really a factor. He got spun during the middle of the race and then fell like a rock that final run to a 16th place finish

    Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones couldn't stop getting out of each other's way as they kept beefing throughout. Blaney ends up 14th and Jones ends up 17th. Tyler Reddick was a complete no show in 20th and I regret picking him to win this race as he just struggled. Cindric stayed on slicks the first half of the race when it rained but he only finished 18th.

The Strugglers

    Kyle Busch and Zane Smith decided to just go bowling into turn one of Mexico City. Both cars broke way too late and lost control of the car collecting several cars in a crash. Justin Haley, Kyle Larson, Allmendinger, Briscoe, Elliott, and Todd Gilliland were innocent bystanders in this one. Larson, Smith, and Busch were pretty much done for the day, though Larson did get the fastest lap award. Haley got up to 24th, but that was as far as he went. Gilliland finished 22nd in this one

    Carson Hocevar had a day to forget. He went off course multiple times, brought out a caution, and spun Ricky Stenhouse Jr. This prompted Stenhouse to put his head into Hocevar's car post race and tell him that he is going to beat the crap out of Hocevar when they get back to the states. Stenhouse wound up finishing 27th and Hocevar finished 34th. I like Hocevar a lot but sooner or later the field is going to treat him like they did with Chastain in 2022 when Chastain was getting into it with everyone.

    Lastly, I want to mention Riley Herbst, who had a good day going until he got spun by William Byron late in the race. Herbst ended up finishing 29th, but he was on track for a top 15 prior to that. I think Herbst could get a top 10 at a road course sooner rather than later because he did alright at COTA and did decent at Mexico City. That said, Herbst can't just pull out in front of traffic like that as Stenhouse almost rammed right into him.

Daniel Suárez

    Suarez had a really solid weekend in my opinion. The win in the Xfinity Series was huge and it was awesome to get to see him celebrate in his home country. He didn't have the fastest car, but he put himself in great position once Zillich took himself and Gibbs out. In the cup race, Suarez was okay. He scored a couple stage points, but finished 19th. I was a bit disappointed by his run in the cup race, but this was still a great weekend for him in my opinion!

Overall Thoughts

    This was a solid race, in my opinion. I thought that there was a ton of strategy in this race, likely because of the rain that came at the start of the race. I'm glad that the best driver and team got the win, even if SVG completely stunk up the show the last run. There were plenty of comers and goers as the race went on and it seemed like drivers could make more passes than usual at road courses. The first 2 stages were awesome to me, though stage 3 was a little more mundane. That said, there was still a lot of passing throughout the field that last run from Bell on back.

    Turn 1 was a bit of a mess at times, but there weren't any major pileups on the restarts which I do appreciate. This is especially the case because some drivers compared turn 1 of Mexico City to the Indy road course, which saw drivers sending it from way too far back. At Mexico City though, there weren't too many deep dive-bombs which was good. 

    My main gripe with this race comes from the officiating of NASCAR themselves. I really want NASCAR to be more hands off when it comes to throwing cautions for rain. Let the teams make the decision to go onto the wets or stay on the slicks. I think that opens up more strategy and intrigue than just throwing a caution. Other than that though, I thought it was a really solid race.

The Future of Mexico City

    I want to see NASCAR return to Mexico again in the near future. I thought the event was great from watching at home and it seemed like a lot in the industry liked it as well. I don't know if NASCAR has a long term contract with the track or not, but I do believe that NASCAR needs to have an international race  whether it is here or at Montreal. You could rotate the dates each year between the two if they wanted and I would be good with that. I think NASCAR fans do not want to see a ton of change with the sport. Many within the fanbase hated on Chicago, the L.A Coliseum, and now Mexico City. NASCAR, however, has given a lot to these traditional fans in the form of North Wilkesboro, Rockingham, and Bowman Gray. We don't need to have every race be in the southeast part of the United States all of the time.

    Running Mexico City, I hope, showed that NASCAR can go into an international market and still put on a good show. I think moving forward, NASCAR should schedule an off-weekend either before or after Mexico City or Canada to give the teams more time to prepare for travel. Things were quite sketchy on Thursday when two of the charter plans broke down and I think that could be avoided with more planning. To add, the drive from Michigan to Mexico City is quite long and is unnecessary when we could just have that off weekend. Regardless, this weekend was a success in my eyes and I'm excited to see what the future holds for NASCAR and Mexico City!

Thanks for reading!