Pocono Preview

 


    The NASCAR Cup Series comes roaring into the Tricky Triangle, also known as Pocono raceway, this upcoming weekend. In this blog, I want to discuss my favorites for the weekend, possible sleepers, and my fantasy picks as there are only 10 races left in the regular season. I won't dive too much into the playoff bubble as I have already talked about that this week. With that said, let's move into the preview!


Previous Poconos

    A lot of what goes into my predictions looks at how drivers perform at tracks of a similar type as to what they will race at. Regarding Pocono, there is no 1 track that is exactly like it on the schedule. It has 3 unique corners and it makes it tough to get a read for who is going to be the best. That said, I used the results at the last 2 Pocono results and the results at the intermediates to use for my prediction. I'll first discuss the percentage that each driver spent in the top 10 at the 2023 and 2024 Pocono Races.


    When looking at how often drivers spent in the top 10 at the 2 races, Denny Hamlin leads the way at 83.13%. That's quite a lot for him and he is a driver that has won 7 times here. He would've won in 2022, had it not been for the disqualification. Regardless, I think there are a lot of strong threats that stand out at the top of the graph aside from Hamlin. Byron, Blaney, and Reddick have all add success at this track as of late as well. Byron has finished no worse than 14th in his last 11 Pocono races, Blaney won 2024, and Reddick has two runner up finishes in the last 3 years at Pocono. Chase Elliott won the 2022 Pocono race and has 3 straight top 10s here. If there's a weekend for Brad Keselowski and Ty Gibbs to change their season, it will have to be now as both have ran up in the top 10 quite often.

    When looking at under the radar drivers that could win this weekend, I think Erik Jones has to be at the top of that discussion. Jones doesn't have the best finishes at Pocono with a 9th and 14th the last 2 seasons, but he is quite solid at this track. Bubble drivers Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace both finished in the top 10 here last year as well, so I would expect for them to be decent contenders at Pocono this weekend. I think the most surprising drivers on this list are Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain, both of whom have struggled a ton at Pocono. Busch's best finish the last 2 years is 21st and Chastain's is 13th. That said, neither driver has run many laps in the top 10 and Chastain has 0 laps in the top 10. I would fade both of these drivers.


Discussion of Intermediate Tracks in 2025


    The other aspect that went into my predictions for this week is how are each driver performing at the Intermediate tracks this season. This includes Homestead, Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte, Texas, Nashville, Michigan, and Darlington. While none of these tracks are inherently like Pocono, they are all high speed ovals which I think at least correlates with Pocono. Regardless, I wanted to focus on the percentage of laps each driver spent in the top 10 at the intermediates this season.



    The main takeaway from the graph above is that William Byron is finishing well at the intermediates, and running up front in these races. He doesn't have the best average finish at the intermediates as that goes to Ross Chastain, but Byron has the best combination of both. When looking at what other drivers have ran up inside the top 10 the most at the intermediates, there's a pack of four that have ran well too. Those being Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Ryan Blaney. Larson has the best average finish at intermediates of those 4 at around 13th, Reddick and Hamlin around 16th, and Blaney has an average finish of 19th. That said, these drivers are likely going to be near the front at Pocono.

    The driver that surprises me the most, however, is Carson Hocevar. Hocevar is 6th. in total time spent in the top 10 at intermediates, yet has the 2nd worst average finish at the intermediates. Hocevar could be a legit threat at Pocono and I would not be surprised to see him even win because he has the speed. This team just needs to put some finishes together, because they've been a top 10 car in terms of speed this season but. they just struggle to get finishes. Chase Elliott has not been super quick on intermediates, though he doesn't have a finish outside the top 20 this season. The last people I want to highlight on this graph are Chase Briscoe and Ryan Preece, both of whom have a very similar average finish and percentage of time spent in the top 10. That said, they work pretty opposite to each other in the race. Briscoe starts well but then always seems to fall back, whereas Preece seems to get better as the race goes. I'm interested to see if that trend continues or not come Sunday!

 My Predictions

    Below is my list of my predictions for Pocono this weekend:
  • 1. Hamlin
  • 2. Byron
  • 3. Reddick
  • 4. Bell
  • 5. Larson
  • 6. Blaney
  • 7. Elliott
  • 8. Logano
  • 9. Chastain
  • 10. Bowman
  • 11. Buescher
  • 12. Berry
  • 13. Jones
  • 14. Preece
  • 15. Briscoe
  • 16. Wallace
  • 17. Gibbs
  • 18. Smith
  • 19. Hocevar
  • 20. Allmendinger
  • 21. Cindric
  • 22. Keselowski
  • 23. Suarez
  • 24. Busch
  • 25. Gragson
  • 26. McDowell
  • 27. Austin Dillon
  • 28. Gilliland
  • 29. Stenhouse
  • 30. Nemechek
  • 31. Haley
  • 32. Van Gisbergen
  • 33. Ty Dillon
  • 34. Herbst
  • 35. Custer
  • 36. Ware
  • 37. Poole

My Favorites


    I've already touched on the drivers who I expect to be contenders this weekend at Pocono. The biggest threats to me are Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick. They've been the fast five on most intermediate tracks this year and you can expect these drivers to be up towards the front. These are the guys that I'll be prioritizing in my fantasy line up for this week. Christopher Bell is someone that I haven't mentioned but he has been solid at intermediates this year as well. He's in the top 5 of average finish and has spent 40% of his laps in the top 10 which ranks 9th. 

Sleepers

    I've mentioned both Erik Jones and Ryan Preece as guys that I could see contending for a good result at Pocono. My biggest sleeper this week though is Zane Smith, who has been pretty decent at intermediates the last couple races. He finished 13th at Nashville and 7th at Michigan. By no means do I think Zane Smith is going to win at Pocono, but I think he could be a sneaky top ten threat based off speed. He's stood out as the best driver at Front Row a lot this year and if he shows some speed in practice, then I would feel confident in him. The last sleeper that I want to mention is Joey Logano. Logano is not inherently a sleeper, but he has flown under the radar this year at intermediates. He was not good at Michigan or Charlotte in recent intermediate races, but he did run decently at Kansas, Vegas, and won at Texas this season. He ranks 7th in laps spent in the top 10 this season and has a top 5 finish at intermediates this season.


Fantasy Lineup

    This is tough for me to decide who I want in fantasy this week as I only have a couple uses left of some of the top guys. For example, Denny Hamlin and William Byron I've used 7 times already this season. That said, I think this week is one of the best times to use them before the regular season ends. I know which tracks that I want to save these drivers for later on. Along with Hamlin and Byron, I think Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney are locks for my lineup. The 5th spot is where I struggle with. Ultimately though, I think I'm going to stick with Larson as he has been somewhat quick at Pocono the last couple of seasons and has been quick on intermediates this year. My garage spot is Carson Hocevar, who has been too quick to pass up. I may change these depending on how qualifying and practice goes so just keep in mind!


     I'm excited for Pocono this weekend as the last few years have been very solid races. We will see if that changes but it should be a good weekend with all three series racing this weekend. Thanks for reading and I'll have my race review for Sunday's race up Monday!


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