The Implications of SVG's Win

 


    With his win at Mexico City, SVG vaults himself into the NASCAR playoffs for the first time in his cup series career. SVG mentioned Sunday that he's in the Cup Series to "win road races," which he did on Sunday. SVG, prior to the win, was 33rd in the regular season points standings just ahead of Riley Herbst and Cole Custer. At minimum now, SVG will finish 16th in the points which is huge for Trackhouse as they get increased payouts at the end of the year. That said, I want to discuss is SVG deserves to be in the playoffs, the updated points situation, and what the future holds for Trackhouse in this blog.


Does SVG Deserve to be in the Playoffs?

    On one hand, SVG does not deserve to be there. The main argument stemming from how he has performed at the majority of oval tracks this season. SVG only has 3 finishes inside the top 20 on traditional ovals this season which is not very good. On traditional ovals this season, SVG has an average running position of 28th which is awful. Though he has improved at the ovals in recent weeks, with finishes of 14th, 18th, and 25th in recent weeks, it's not enough to be considered good. To add some context, however, SVG is showing growth on the ovals. His average running position on ovals over the last 3 races (Charlotte, Nashville, and Michigan) is 22.04 compared to the first 8 traditional oval races which was 31st. It's encouraging to see his growth and I hope he can sustain that.

    On the other hand though, there's a serious argument that SVG deserves to be there. SVG excels at the road courses and as long as NASCAR has the win and you're in system, then it makes complete sense for Trackhouse to keep SVG in that car. Trackhouse isn't bending the rules at all, but rather just taking advantage of the system NASCAR has in place. I think there's a larger discussion that is being had about the playoffs themselves and the system behind it. For that reason, I do believe that SVG is deserving to be in the same way that Harrison Burton was last year. It sucks that a guy that has not had a good season and is 30th in points is in, but that's the system NASCAR has in place. 

The NASCAR Playoffs as a whole

    This whole debate surrounding SVG should start with the playoff system. The win and you're in part of the playoff format is the most controversial part of the current system in my eyes. I do think that this system needs to be worked in a matter to where people that are 30th in points can't just get a win and lock themselves in. Perhaps that means bringing back the rule where you have to be 30th in points and going stricter on that. I do not hate the current playoffs system, but this and the single race winner take all final round are my biggest pet peeves 

    SVG has said that he wants to continue to improve at ovals after the race on Sunday. I would be lying if I said though that I think SVG is a threat to go deep in the playoffs. He likely will get eliminated in the round of 16, unless if he wins the next 3 road course races, which he certainly could do. I just wish we could celebrate these wins without having to worry about what implications that they'll have weeks down the line. When Harrison Burton won at Daytona last summer, it was such a cool moment that should have been celebrated. Instead though, we had to worry about Harrison Burton being in the playoffs now and being an easy elimination from the first round. That's how I feel about SVG's win at Mexico City. He deserved the win but right now he is an easy pick for me to eliminate in the first round.

The Current Playoff Standings



    Credit to @NASCARonNBC for the picture

    There are currently 10 drivers locked into the playoffs which are Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry, Shane Van Gisbergen, and Ross Chastain. I think Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick are safe for the most part barring a complete meltdown from either team. That leaves the discussion around Bubba Wallace on down. Wallace had a decent weekend at Mexico City, finishing 12th which is quite good for him. That team has had speed this year, but they haven't finished races the best. That said, they did well at Michigan and Nashville so they're starting to get into a groove. 

    Chase Briscoe is a bit of an enigma to me. They qualify super well but they always seem to fall off as the race goes on. I think they are in the danger zone especially if they keep finishing poor at the ovals. Though, they showed good speed at Mexico City so they should be decent at the other road courses remaining. Alex Bowman finally put it all together and got a great finish. That said, the teams inconsistency is really annoying. I think Bowman has the speed to make the playoffs, but we very well could get a few new winners down the line which would leave Bowman in a world of trouble. The last guy above the cutline is Chris Buescher, who was hit with a 30 point penalty earlier this season. Buescher was really good at Michigan, but aside from that he has been quiet. That said, I like him more than Briscoe and Bowman at the moment just because I know what I'm getting from Buescher.

    Beneath the cutline first comes Ryan Preece, who I think is the only guy that I think could point his way in. He's only 19 points back at the moment from Buescher, but the schedule the rest of the way is tough. There's 3 road courses and 2 superspeedways, which Preece has never been that great at. That said, he has improved at the high speed ovals and we do have two short tracks where he could be a factor at in Iowa and Richmond. McDowell, Allmendinger, and Busch are more than 40 points out and while they could point their way in, I think they will have to win in order to get in. Same goes for the rest of the field, as they are all pretty far out. Furthermore, I just don't see anyone aside from Preece scoring more points than Bowman, Briscoe, Wallace, or Buescher over the next 11 weeks.


The Trackhouse Dilemma

    The last thing I want to talk about in this blog is what the future holds for Trackhouse racing. Ross Chastain is locked down for now and I don't see any reason why Trackhouse would get rid of Chastain for another driver. Chastain has won 6 races with Trackhouse and is a perennial playoff contender. The debate lies with the other 3 drivers that Trackhouse has. Daniel Suárez was the team's first driver ever back in 2021 and has won twice with Trackhouse. Shane Van Gisbergen has won twice with Trackhouse as well and qualified for the playoffs in his first full time season with Trackhouse. Connor Zillich has a win in the Xfinity Series at COTA and has shown some great speed this year at the oval tracks.

    I really don't know what route Trackhouse goes down. So long as the win and you're in system is here, I think SVG will always have a seat at Trackhouse. He's too good at road courses to just let him go for the time being. Connor Zillich is progressing really well in the Xfinity Series and he's only 18 years old. He has a ton of potential and I could see Trackhouse wanting to get him to cup as soon as they can. Then comes Daniel Suárez, who has been with the team for 5 years and has shown flashes of being great. He made the round of 12 twice with Trackhouse and he showed that he can win in good equipment in the Xfinity Series race.

    My prediction is this, however. I think Trackhouse will run it back next year with the same driver lineup that they have currently. I think they'll wait for Zillich to develop one more year in the Xfinity Series, with a few Cup starts sprinkled throughout. I think Suarez though, is the one that is on the hot seat. Suarez, as of June 17th, sits 28th in points. He is 99 points out of the playoffs and likely needs to win a race to make it in. Suarez has not shown much speed this year and this would be his worst season with Trackhouse if he continues with where he is at. Even if the win and you're in format goes, I still think Trackhouse could stick with SVG especially if he continues to improve on the ovals like he has in recent weeks. So, I believe Zillich will replace Suarez in 2027, leaving a 3 driver lineup of Chastain, SVG, and Zillich.


   Thanks for checking out the blog today! Tomorrow, I think I'm going to talk about the best track that each driver not in the playoffs currently could win at to lock themselves in the playoffs!






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