Which Tracks do Non-locked in Drivers Have the Best Shot at Winning at?

 

    With SVG's win at Mexico City, that means that there are 26 drivers that have not won a race yet this season and they only have 10 more opportunities to lock into the playoffs with a win. Today, I want to discuss each driver that has not won yet and dive into which tracks I believe they have the best shot at winning at. I'll give three tracks for each driver to where I think they can win at in a short rationale behind my decisions

The Drivers Currently In

    Chase Elliott is the first driver that I want to discuss. Elliott's best tracks to win at are Watkins Glen, Iowa, and Richmond. I could see Chase being a threat at Chicago, Sonoma, and Dover as well, but Chase has been really solid at Watkins Glen in the past. Furthermore, Elliott has been really good at short tracks which I believe helps him out. He finished in the top 5 at Martinsville earlier this year, finished top 10 at Iowa and Richmond last year, and he won the Clash at Bowman-Gray. 

    Next up is Tyler Reddick. Reddick's best tracks to win at are Pocono, Indianapolis, and Chicago. Similar to Elliott, I think Reddick has to be one of the favorites at Sonoma and the Glen with how good he has been at road courses. Reddick has finished second twice at Pocono, finished second at Indy last year, and second at Chicago. To me, Reddick has been super quick at the intermediate tracks and the road courses, which are great opportunities for him to win at.

    Moving on to Bubba Wallace, I think Bubba's best tracks to win at are Richmond, Indianapolis, and Pocono. Similarly to Reddick, Wallace has excelled at the large intermediates. He finished 10th at Pocono in 2024, 5th at Indy, and finished 4th in the summer Richmond race last year. Wallace has shown some pace at the short tracks this year, finishing 3rd at Martinsville this season. The intermediates are the other tracks that I'm confident in, as he ran well at both Michigan and Nashville a few weeks ago.

    I truly do not know where Chase Briscoe is great at. I would likely lean towards Iowa, Richmond, and Watkins Glen. Briscoe has 2 top ten finishes at Bristol and Martinsville this year, which shows that he can be good at the short tracks. Furthermore, James Small seems to know how to set the cars up best for short tracks, as Truex finished 3rd in the summer Richmond Race last year. Briscoe did finish 6th at the Glen last year, but I think you could interchange the Glen with Chicago or Sonoma.

   For Alex Bowman, I think his best shots to win are at Pocono, Chicago, and Dover. Bowman finished top 5 at Pocono last year and seems to be quickest at the intermediates this season. Chicago was where Bowman got his first win since 2022 at Las Vegas and I think he has a shot at repeating. Dover is a track where Bowman has had a good amount of success, as he has 4 straight top 10s and a win in that span.

    For Chris Buescher, his best shots are the three road courses in Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and Chicago. He won at the Glen last year and he has the best average finish at road courses since the next gen era began. He could win at a Pocono or Indy, but I think the road courses are his best shot.

The Road Course Ringers

   

    For Michael McDowell, Aj Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, and Ty Gibbs, I believe their best shot comes down to the road courses of Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and Chicago. McDowell could win either Atlanta or Daytona, but I am more confident that he can get it done on the road courses. He just finished 5th at Mexico City and showed some serious speed at the end of that race. Allmendinger could possibly win at Pocono or Indy as Kaulig has improved their performances there, but I'm not confident in him enough to pick him outside the road courses. Busch has been too inconsistent at the intermediates and the short tracks for me to have much confidence in him. He could be a threat at Richmond since Austin Dillon won there last year, but I'm not confident in Busch outside the road courses. Ty Gibbs is another guy I would throw into this category as Gibbs was super quick at Mexico City, leading 40 laps before being trapped back in traffic. Gibbs is the driver I am most confident out of these that I could see win at one of the regular ovals, but he's been too inconsistent across the board.

The Superpeedway Hopefuls

    This is the category where I don't see any of these drivers winning at the road courses or regular ovals that are left. The drivers I have in this category include Todd Gilliland, Justin Haley, Ty Dillon, Noah Gragson, Brad Keselowski, Cole Custer, Riley Herbst, and Cody Ware. 

    Gilliland, Haley, Ty Dillon, Custer, Herbst, and Ware have not shown much speed at the traditional ovals or  the road courses for me to be confident in. Haley did run well at Bristol early this season, but that was his only good run. Riley Herbst and Cole Custer have shown some speed at the road courses this year, but they are not guys that I think could win a race at these tracks. Gilliland, Ty Dillon, and Ware have not really excelled anywhere so I think they are relegated to the superspeeedways.

    Keselowski and Gragson are the toughest ones for me. Keselowski, especially, is tough because Brad was really quick at intermediates last year. Keselowski led 35 laps at Indy last year and finished 7th at Pocono. There is a world where he could regain that speed, but he has not put it together this year. As for Gragson, he showed a lot of speed at intermediates last year as he finished in the top 10 at both Indy and Dover. That said, Gragson has not shown any speed outside of Charlotte and Vegas this year. For that reason, I'm not confident that he could win at Dover, Pocono, or Indy.

The Wildcards

    Ryan Preece finds himself first outside the playoff cutline. I think Preece has a shot at Pocono, Indy, and possibly Dover. Preece has not been a good superspeedway racer throughout his career. That said, Preece has been decent at the intermediates this year, finishing in the top 10 at Charlotte, Michigan, and Las Vegas. I think that will be his best shots to win especially considering he has struggled at short tracks outside of Martinsville the last few years.

    Carson Hocevar îs a tough one to figure out. He has a ton of speed this year, but that team can just not put a full race together more often than not. Almost every intermediate race this year, I've seen Hocevar running near the front and that is especially the case as of late. He was 2nd at Charlotte before his engine blew, finished 2nd at Nashville, and led at Michigan before a left rear tire came apart. I look at Pocono, Indy, and Dover as his best shots to win. Hocevar was 2nd at Atlanta in the spring race and could be a threat to win there as well!

    You might be surprised not to see Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in the superspeedway hopeful category. The only reason why I don't is because of Stenhouse's performance at Iowa last year. Stenhouse finished 5th at Iowa last year which I was quite surprised by. Outside of Iowa, Stenhouse's best shot to win are the superspeedways at Atlanta and Daytona. Stenhouse has 2 superspeedway wins in the Next Gen Era which were the Daytona 500 in 2022 and Talladega in 2024. 

    I'm grouping the Legacy Motor Club drivers together. Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek's best shot to win are the superspeedways of Atlanta and Daytona. That said, both drivers have shown speed at the intermediate tracks this season. Both finished in the top 10 at Texas, Nemechek finished 10th at Kansas, Jones finished 7th at Nashville, and both ran well at Charlotte. They would be longshots to win at Pocono or Indy, but they could be sneaky contenders

    Zane Smith is another driver that falls into the same category as Jones and Nemechek. Smith could win a superspeedway race, but I think he's shown enough speed at some of the intermediates this year to where he could have some good runs there. He finished 7th at Michigan, 11th at Homestead, 13th at Nashville, and was running well at Kansas despite finishing 16th. He's by no means a favorite to win, but he's a sneaky threat at Pocono or Indy in my opinion.

    The next driver I want to discuss is Austin Dillon. Dillon has not been super quick this year, but there's one track left that he could win at. That track is Richmond, which Dillon won last season out of nowhere. I don't think why will repeat that performance, but he has to be mentioned as a contender just because of how he did last year. That said, Atlanta and Daytona are his other two best shots.

    The last driver that I want to discuss is Daniel Suárez. Out of everyone on this list, he is the hardest for me to figure out. Suarez has been pretty mediocre at most tracks that we have gone to. That said, I think his best shots to win are at Atlanta and the road courses. Suarez had one of the best average finishes at Atlanta prior to the spring race, including a win in 2024 spring race. As for the road courses, Suarez finished in the top 15 at Chicago, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen last season. I hope Suarez gets to victory lane because he is under a ton of pressure to perform.

How Many Drivers Will Win?

    I don't think we will see a ton of new winners the rest of the way. I think we will see 3 or 4 new guys get a win the rest of the way. I think we could see a new winner at the two superspeedways and the three road courses. I would expect for there to be the usual suspects at Pocono, Indy, Dover, Iowa, and Richmond that are already locked in. I won't make any predictions as of now for surprise winners, but I think if you're Wallace on down that are currently in, then I would start worrying. Reddick and Elliott should be good to make it in. That said, the next 10 weeks should be exciting as we head into the summer months!

Thanks for reading and I should have my Pocono preview up on Friday. For tomorrow's blog, I'm not sure what I will write about just yet!