Chicago Preview

 


    For the third year in a row, the NASCAR Cup Series takes to the streets of Chicago. There's been a lot of craziness the last two years especially when it comes to the weather. It has rained the last two years and has led to both races being shortened which sucks. Unfortunately, it looks like it may rain again Sunday afternoon which just stinks. Regardless, Chicago has been really fun to watch the last two years. Whether it be SVG coming in and dominating his ever cup race, or Alex Bowman pulling off an upset win, Chicago has given fans a lot of thrilling moments. Today, I would like to discuss a few storylines and my predictions for the Chicago weekend.

Storylines

    The third, and likely final race on the streets of Chicago has a few interesting storylines. Firstly is the in-season tournament, which features 16 drivers still left vying for the million dollars. There are no perfect brackets left for the fans, so a lot of the intrigue is likely gone at the moment. Still, it will be interesting to follow these storylines throughout the race. Secondly, is the weather for the race. There is a 40 to 60 percent chance that there will be rain during the race which could throw a lot of strategy into the race. I want the race to be clean the whole time, but that is likely not going to happen.
 
    The third storyline that is important is looking at a surprise winner to break open the playoff grid. There are a few really good road course racers that are not locked into the playoffs that I could see winning. I'll talk about these drivers more later on. The last storyline that I want to follow is if SVG can get back to victory lane at Chicago after being taken out last year in a crash. He was running well in this race last year prior to the crash, but I think he is the odds on favorite to win.

Road Course Stats


    My graph for the week is looking at which drivers have the best average running position and average finishing position in road courses during the 2024-2025 season. It's only a 7 race sample size, but should give a decent indication of who has been good. No surprise that SVG has been really good at road courses the last year and a half. He only has 1 win at Mexico City, but he's been super fast. Christopher Bell jumps out to me as well because he finishes great and runs super well in the race. He was pretty fast here last summer, so I expect Bell to be a threat. The other driver that sticks out on this graph is Aj Allmendinger. Allmendinger runs really well, but he's had a multitude of mechanical failures or crashes that has hurt him. He crashed out at Chicago last year, ran out of fuel at COTA, and was involved in the early crash at Mexico City. 

    There are a lot of drivers clustered together in the top right. These drivers include Chase Elliott, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, and Michael McDowell. I think all 6 of these drivers can run well at Chicago this weekend. Chris Buescher doesn't run super great at these road courses, but he's always there at the end to get a top 10 finish. He has the best average finish on road courses in the next gen car. Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson fall into a similar boat to that of Aj Allmendinger. Gibbs is someone that I think can win here this weekend, along with Larson.

Sleepers

    I've already covered some of my favorites for this weekend, but I want to focus next on drivers that could be dark horses to run well at Chicago. Bubba Wallace isn't someone that is going to lead a ton of laps at road courses. That said, he has finished inside the top 20 in the last 7 road course races. He has slowly started to figure out road courses and isn't a liability at them anymore. I'd argue that he's turned into an alright road course racer, shaving off the previous reputation that he had.

    Chase Briscoe has not lit the world on fire, either when it comes to road courses. With that said, Briscoe has been solid with JGR this year at both road courses that have been ran. He finished in the top 15 at both COTA and Mexico City, which includes a 7th at Mexico City. Briscoe could be a sneaky threat to win this weekend. 

    It's weird for me to say that Penske could be seen as a sleeper at a road course, but I view them as that. They've been alright at the road courses the last year and a half, as they rank in the top half of average running position. I think Blaney is the driver that will do the best out of the Penske stable, but Logano and Cindric should run decently. 

    My last sleeper this weekend comes with Daniel Suarez. Suarez has not been amazing at road courses the last year and a half. He did win at Sonoma in 2022, but he has few great runs on road courses. He does, however, rank 5th in average running position this season on the two road courses that we have had this season. Suarez has a lot to drive for now, especially if he wants to prove to everyone that he still belongs in the Cup Series

My Finishing Predictions

1. SVG 2. Bell 3. Elliott 4. McDowell 5. Buescher 6. Byron 7. Bowman 8. Reddick 9. Larson 10. Gibbs 11. Busch 12. Chastain 13. Blaney 14. Allmendinger 15. Hocevar 16. Smith 17. Custer 18. Briscoe 19. Logano 20. Cindric
21. Gilliland 22. Haley 23. Heim 24. Suarez 25. Brown 26. Wallace 27. Nemechek 28. Hamlin 29. Preece 30. Keselowski 31. Ty Dillon 32. Gragson 33. Stenhouse 34. Berry 35. Herbst 36. Jones 37. Austin Dillon 38. Hill 39. Bilicki 40. Ware


The Playoff Cutline

    I usually save the playoff cutline talk for my race review, but I wanted to mention it here. Currently Bubba Wallace sits as the last driver in at +23 over Ryan Preece. Erik Jones is -49 out, Allmendinger -59, and Carson Hocevar -62. This is a race where I can see a "surprise" winner happening. For drivers below the cutline, I believe the ones that have a realistic shot of winning at Chicago include Aj Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, Michael McDowell, and Ty Gibbs. These four have been very solid at road courses the last year and a half and would expect them to be contenders this week. For those above the cutline, Reddick, Buescher, and Bowman all have a solid shot to win as well. I think Bubba Wallace is in some trouble this race especially if we get a new winner. 

Closing Thoughts & Expectations

    Chicago should be a decent show. It's been hampered a lot by rain the last 2 years and I really do hope that it stays out for Sunday. I'm not confident that the rain will stay away, though. The tough part with these road courses is that they are really tough to predict. I think you could make an argument for 15 guys to win this weekend and I wouldn't say that it's bad. It's a pretty big change from what we had even 5 years ago, when it was obvious that Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson were going to win every road course on the schedule. Elliott hasn't won a road course since 2021 and Larson has become very inconsistent on the road courses. It's nice to have some unpredictability at the road courses. That said, I do think SVG will win.

    I'm really excited for the Xfinity series race where SVG and Connor Zilisch will go head to head. Those two should be the favorites and it will be really fun to watch two of the best road course racers in the series go at it. Regarding the Cup race, I think Katherine Legge will be the driver that DNQs. I also expect a decent showing from Corey Heim, who just dominated at Lime Rock Park last weekend. I don't think Heim will win, but a top 20 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Either way, should be a fun weekend in Chicago!



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